So I was curious as to how the game determines if a fielder "BOP"s a play. It's a little surprising. Note that throughout this post I'm referring to errors made when fielding a ball (aka "BOP"), and not errors when throwing the ball (overthrown balls that miss the intended baseman).
First off, all fielders on any given team have the same chance to make an error. However, each team has it's own set chance for a BOP to occur on any given play. Here are the numbers per team:
California: 10
Boston: 7
Detroit: 12
Minnesota: 10
Houston: 8
New York: 11
St. Louis: 11
San Francisco: 9
American: 6
National: 4
Here's how it works. Any time a fielder touches the ball after it's been hit but before the ball touches a wall, a subroutine runs to determine whether an error will occur. A random one-byte number (0-255) is generated. If that number is less than your team's number listed above, an error occurs. That is, if you're fielding with St. Louis, you will make a fielding error if the random number is less than 11.
Toss those numbers though a calculator, and you can calculate the percent chance that a fielder will make a fielding error on any given play:
California: 3.9%
Boston: 2.7%
Detroit: 4.7%
Minnesota: 3.9%
Houston: 3.1%
New York: 4.3%
St. Louis: 4.3%
San Francisco: 3.5%
American: 2.3%
National: 1.6%
So, I've not yet looked for the code behind throwing errors (and that would be a hell of a lot harder), but as far as "BOP"s are concerned, every fielder is just as good as any other fielder on his same team. This also brings up a new discovery: the chance for your fielders to "BOP" is different for each team. Of the 8 non-all star teams, Boston is the best-fielding team, with Detroit coming in as the worst. Who would've thought?
Edit: Oh, if you'd like to screw with the numbers yourself, you can find them in the ROM at offset DA92-DA9B. Make that 1DA92-1DA9B if you're editing a 256k ROM. God, there's another thing to add to the editor ...
Nightwulf
Nightwulf, you are the RBI messiah!
Riley and I have been saying for years that Detroit is the worst fielding team on the game...I have probably even posted as much!
GREAT find, Nightwulf--keep 'em coming!!!!
May I humbly suggest stuff like this gets linked on dee-nee.com?
Nightwulf, I love you with all my heart but I just can't buy this one. Detroit has always been the most solid fielding team for me with California, Houston, and St. louis being the worst three. This just doesn't make sense.
Beales
www.rbibaseballcotut.com - The R.B.I. Baseball COTUT
Quote from: SmokedUBad13 on 08/10/04, 09:05:15 PM
Nightwulf, I love you with all my heart but I just can't buy this one. Detroit has always been the most solid fielding team for me with California, Houston, and St. louis being the worst three. This just doesn't make sense.
Beales
www.rbibaseballcotut.com - The R.B.I. Baseball COTUT
Hey Beales...you ever played RBI? You should give it a try sometime--it's great!
Quote from: JoeDirt on 08/10/04, 09:06:35 PM
Quote from: SmokedUBad13 on 08/10/04, 09:05:15 PM
Nightwulf, I love you with all my heart but I just can't buy this one. Detroit has always been the most solid fielding team for me with California, Houston, and St. louis being the worst three. This just doesn't make sense.
Beales
www.rbibaseballcotut.com - The R.B.I. Baseball COTUT
Hey Beales...you ever played RBI? You should give it a try sometime--it's great!
OH SNAP!!!!
Now now, let's play nice. One thing to remember here is that the difference in fielding error probability between teams is very small. So small that it's really not surprising that you may feel the information is incorrect based on your own observations. There's certainly nothing wrong with calling "bullshit" and asking for an explanation.
I wrote up a very detailed explanation of how I came to these figures. Rather than include it in this post (since it's long, and assembler code is nasty) I've attached it as a text file. I'm not sure who here has experience with 6502 assembler (I think Gantry was dabbling in it?) but it's fairly clear if you understand the code.
That said, it's easy enough to set up a demonstration even if you're not familiar with assembler. For example, open up the ROM in a hex editor. Change the value at $DA92 (California's error probability; $0A default) to $00. Change $DA93 (Boston; $07 default) to $FF. Now start the ROM up in an emulator, and setup a "Watch Game" between California and Boston. You'll find that California makes no "BOP"s, while poor Boston is screwed on any eligible play.
These bytes directly control the chance of fielding errors per team. I have nothing against skepticism, but also please understand my position that it's fairly clear to observe the described behavior by either following the game code or changing the appropriate bytes in the ROM and observing gameplay.
Nightwulf
For what it's worth, I decided to take my own advice. I modified the ROM so that the two all star teams would make a fielding error on every eligible play (by changing the values at $DA9A and $DA9B to $FF).
;D
Nightwulf
QuoteHey Beales...you ever played RBI? You should give it a try sometime--it's great!
Hey Cordiano... I gave it a try and
smoked you bad. You're right, it
was great!
QuoteOne thing to remember here is that the difference in fielding error probability between teams is very small. So small that it's really not surprising that you may feel the information is incorrect based on your own observations. There's certainly nothing wrong with calling "bullshit" and asking for an explanation.
Yes, this is true. I did overlook the small difference in probability and went straight to the extreme point of defending that Detroit isn't the worst. After hearing your explanation and 'proof,' I believe you now. It's just hard to believe when I have such stong feelings towards Detroit always fielding so well for me. Then again, there is a certain amount of bad luck in drawing the low number... maybe I'm just lucky enough to draw that random number the least when I'm Detroit. :)
Beales
www.rbibaseballcotut.com - The R.B.I. Baseball COTUT
hey now!
Nightwulf, you're out of control. Nicely done.
Smoked, I've always hated fielding with Detroit. In my experience, they are far and away the worst. Just fucking terrible. I can remember two instances where I made FOUR errors in ONE inning with that sack of shit team. Sorry, I'm getting fired up. Sometimes I wish Trammell and Sour Lou would spontaneously combust.
I gotta agree with fknmclane about Detroit's fielding. Three BOP's in the ninth cost me a game with them once. I still hold bitterness toward DT's fielding to this day.
I also always hated fielding any ball with the pitcher because I thought they bopped more which I guess isn't true. I guess maybe it's just due to the fact that it's more memorable when they get bopped on a slow rolling bunt and I end up breaking something.
Quote from: Baines on 08/11/04, 12:40:16 AM
I also always hated fielding any ball with the pitcher because I thought they bopped more which I guess isn't true. I guess maybe it's just due to the fact that it's more memorable when they get bopped on a slow rolling bunt and I end up breaking something.
Savage.
I always thought the pitcher was the worst fielder on every team. Guess it's just random.
Wow, color me completely shocked. Some people have been saying for quite some time that Detroit is the worst fielding team and I have been calling them idiots. You learn something new about this game everyday...
Some comments and further debate:
1) This should put to rest the theory that when you sub a batter, they are more prone to BOPs in the field.
2) On that same note, our superstition that pitchers make more BOPs is completely false. No that we'll change our strategy
3) Perhaps this is too low-level and involves shit like microcode (if that exists in the NES) and electrical engineering, but do you (nightwulf) have any opinon about hitting the buttons and causing BOPs? From your explanation there is no provision for it in the assembly, but I am 100% certain that hitting the button too quickly after getting the ball will cause a BOP. I can't be convinced otherwise, anyone else agree with me?
I had more ideas, but I'll leave it there for now...
Quote from: Gantry on 08/11/04, 02:22:34 AM
3) Perhaps this is too low-level and involves shit like microcode (if that exists in the NES) and electrical engineering, but do you (nightwulf) have any opinon about hitting the buttons and causing BOPs? From your explanation there is no provision for it in the assembly, but I am 100% certain that hitting the button too quickly after getting the ball will cause a BOP. I can't be convinced otherwise, anyone else agree with me?
I had more ideas, but I'll leave it there for now...
Nightwulf and I were discussing this in chat. As far as he knows, the "jumping the gun" as I call it has no effect.
But I could swear I bop plays with outfielders all the time when I hit the button before I safely have the ball in the glove.
Great work again, Nightwulf. This does confirm the Detroit theory, it really shocks me though that pitchers are not more likely to make BOPS, it always seemed like that had to be true.
I always thought NY and StL were the worst fielding teams. You can almost feel when the errors are coming with them. With the exception of Pendleton, has anyone else noticed that he's amazing in the field?
Great work wulf, I'm loving all the insider info I'm getting on this site. I was just busted on throwing out runners at 2nd last night.
Quote from: Gantry on 08/11/04, 02:22:34 AM
3) Perhaps this is too low-level and involves shit like microcode (if that exists in the NES) and electrical engineering, but do you (nightwulf) have any opinon about hitting the buttons and causing BOPs? From your explanation there is no provision for it in the assembly, but I am 100% certain that hitting the button too quickly after getting the ball will cause a BOP. I can't be convinced otherwise, anyone else agree with me?
I feel very confident that there is some corrolation here between trying to throw the ball to soon and having a "bop" occur - for me, it's usually on a play to the 2B, when I'm trying to turn the double play.
Oh yeah, I forgot about that, If you try to throw too early the chances of making an error go up, I am 95+% certain of this. I haven't noticed a BOP correlation with the opponent hitting the buttons.
It's good to know we're not crazy. Perhaps the opponents button mashing really doesn't do anything, but trying to throw quickly will create more BOPs....
Man, perhaps I'm getting too big of a head in the RBI World. I am now debunking proven scientific data and making my own claims....
Nightwulf is 99% sure hitting the button too early has no effect on the BOP. The BOP is decided before the ball gets to your glove. Nightwulf, correct me if I'm wrong. I'm the last guy who should be putting words in your mouth.
Quote from: fknmclane on 08/11/04, 12:29:40 PM
Nightwulf is 99% sure hitting the button too early has no effect on the BOP. The BOP is decided before the ball gets to your glove. Nightwulf, correct me if I'm wrong. I'm the last guy who should be putting words in your mouth.
In the Olympic spirit of fairness, I'm going to avoid making any comment about fknmclane putting anything in Nightwulf's mouth...
I am very impressed!!! Good work nightwulf!
I am a bit shocked that California isn't the worst defensive team, but I don't second guess the wulf!
Quote from: fightonusc on 08/11/04, 12:31:20 PM
Quote from: fknmclane on 08/11/04, 12:29:40 PM
Nightwulf is 99% sure hitting the button too early has no effect on the BOP. The BOP is decided before the ball gets to your glove. Nightwulf, correct me if I'm wrong. I'm the last guy who should be putting words in your mouth.
In the Olympic spirit of fairness, I'm going to avoid making any comment about fknmclane putting anything in Nightwulf's mouth...
I set you up for that pretty well. You took it and ran with it. Nicely done.
Alright, I take back what I said earlier. I just can't believe 100% in this theory. The pitcher does commit more bops then the normal fielder.
I think nightwulf's theory is on the right path, but not completely correct. I think there's more to it and that he's missing another factor or two that determine which position/players commit the most bops.
The position where I experience the most bops is pitcher and the least is center fielder.
Back to the team issue... Detroit can't be the worst. Compared to other teams, I'm virtually errorless with them in my games.
Something is missing in this theory.
Beales
www.rbibaseballcotut.com - The R.B.I. Baseball COTUT
I'm done with this. If anyone's interested in trying to take it further, I'm at the point where I've identified $DDD8 as the first line of executable code that runs when a player is about to touch the ball, but only if the play is "eligible" for a BOP (that is, the ball has left the bat but not yet touched a wall or another fielder). Set a breakpoint there and follow the code. It's fairly straightforward.
No, I don't think throwing early has anything to do with it. This block of code (starting at $DDD8, ending with the conditional branch at $DDF2) is very short, and there's simply no difference in statements executed or variables set based on controller input. The first statement that executes once an error has definitely occured is $DDF4, and I've found no explicit or relative jumps to that statement from elsewhere in the code. One way to take this project further would be to set your team's error probability to zero and try to force a "BOP" by throwing too quickly. If it does, (and I don't believe it's possible), identifying where the call is made to increment the error count would be the next step.
I also don't believe executing a "quick" throw has anything to do with it. I only found two statements in the game which modify the error count. One runs as a part of this block (BOPs), and the other runs as a part of a block of code that executes any time the ball touches a wall (throwing errors). I don't have to search through pages of game code to identify the mechanics behind the "quick" throw to know that there's no call to increment the error count there; all calls to the subroutine that increments errors (all two of them) have been identified.
So yes, I don't see any reason at code-level for attempting to throw the ball early to cause a "BOP". Try setting a breakpoint at the address above and play. You'd have to be throwing absurdly early, as the determination of whether or not a fielding error occurs takes place shortly before the ball reaches your player. That said, I'm not totally closed to the possibility. It's possible that a jump to the error-incrementing routine occurs through a relative address (which I haven't found by watching for calls to that routine in-game, and I highly doubt), or it's possible that controller use is somehow skewing the random number generator. The RNG is based purely on mathematical operations performed on three variables, so I don't find this to be likely.
So that's it. No, I don't see any evidence that throwing early has any bearing on fielding errors. No, the code behind executing a "quick" throw is not of any relation to the block that determines fielding errors. No, in years of gameplay, I've not noticed early throws to 'cause BOPs. No, I don't doubt that anyone else has observed this; I don't "rule things out" simpy because I haven't experienced them. Yes, I'm well aware of how to make a "quick" throw, thank you. Someone else can take over this project and the snide fucking remarks that come with it.
Nightwulf
I wholeheartedly agree witt the team/Detroit BOP issue. The test he did completely proves this to be true and I can't see how it can be incorrect...
As for the pitcher BOP, I do switch fielders but thats mostly out of habit. I can't really say the pitcher is worse, I'm pretty confident it's superstition. As for the center fielder making the least amount of BOPs, that's completely new for me...
Seems like everyone here has different BOP conspiracy theories, myself included. It just goes to show how habitual and stubborn we are in our ideas, again myself included. I'm going to have to seriously consider the fast-BOP throw idea I'm clinging to. Gotta keep an open mind and let the stats play themselves...
The other thing I was fairly certain caused BOPs was not being centered to the ball, if you fielded just off center, BOPs were more likely. Thanks for all the work Nightwulf.
Actually, I did notice this too good call! I think I'll take over the BOP research, as nightwulf is clearly sick of all the headaches. I'm a glutton for punishment, though keep in mind I don't have the assembly skill he does. In fact I have little-to-no idea what I'm doing but what the hell...
It seems to me as well that bops occur when fielding off-center and when trying to throw too early
Do you guys ever sense a bop coming if you play back on the ball? For example, if you "let the ball play you," to take a baseball phrase, instead of playing the ball?
Thanks...I'll hang up and listen.
does the "throw too early" or controller input stuff have anything to do with a bop when the baserunner wiggles back and forth to cause an error or is that myth too?
basically, does the "runner wiggle" have any effect on a bop?
I haven't seen the runner wiggle BOP myself. I think at this point you have to assume that none of these BOP techniques actually work. Everyone is all over the place and we haven't seen any evidence in the game yet...
I will start playing with the game and get deeper into the matter. I'd like to prove the fast throw BOP one way or the other, but the odds are against me right now. My 99% sure went to 90% in one day, not I'm thinking 65%
Quote from: JoeDirt on 08/11/04, 08:36:52 PM
Thanks...I'll hang up and listen.
I like this style.
Hey guys, how's it going. Uh, I've got a suggestion that will help St. Louis become a better team.
How about if they trade um, Lake, Ford, uh, Tony Pena, and their third and fourth round picks for Reggie uh, Jackson.
Thanks for taking the call.
Bump - for T Roog.
I had 4 BOPs w/Detroit last night - Trammel averages more than an error a game for me. Ozzie Smith is good for just about one a game for me too.
Nightwulf...being I'm a numbers guy, can you clear up a few questions that linger.
A) Is 0 a potential outcome of the random number generator?
B) If a team has a BOP rating of 11, does that mean that anything l"ess than" 11 will cause an error or will 11 also induce an error?
Thanks!
Shooty-
For some reason, I geeked out and read through Nightwulf's findings yesterday, when I thought the percentages might be slightly off. But like you guessed, 0 counts ("A random one-byte number (0-255) is generated"). And BOPs only come when strictly less than the random number.
So the percentages hold up.
"That is, if you're fielding with St. Louis, you will make a fielding error if the random number is less than 11."
So 0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10 are all gonna force a bop to occur. That's 11 numbers out of 255 ("St. Louis: 4.3%").
WAIT...there's 256 (0-255) numbers though.
"Ah cHAAAAAAa...ah hhhhhha" (imagine Coming to America).
Ok, anyways...all the numbers are divided by 256, my bad. And the percentages check out!!
:-*
Nightwulf
Thanks Lips...thats what I figured but wanted verify.
In order to try and prove that you can notice a difference in BOP quantity, I figured the chances that each team make at least 1 BOP in a game. Assumptions playing slurve or straight pitch (so no Ks) so assuming 35 fielded balls per game 27 outs plus 8 hits not homeruns or off the wall.
California: 10 75.21%
Boston: 7 62.11%
Detroit: 12 81.37%
Minnesota: 10 75.21%
Houston: 8 67.08%
New York: 11 78.50%
St. Louis: 11 78.50%
San Francisco: 9 71.42%
American: 6 56.40%
National: 4 42.37%
OK so you realistically won't notice much difference between NY and Detroiti, but if you play Detroit against NL or even Boston you can notice a difference, i believe.
I could be completely wrong. But does the speed at which a ball is hit at a fielder have anything to do with errors. Because it seems that when a ball is hit hard (mainly at a pitcher) thay seem more prone to make an error. I also noticed others swearing that trying to make a quick throw can cause errors. I am not sure if it's true or not but, even though this may not make any sense or have any correlation with these assesments. I think it goes back to another situation. Sometimes when trying to turn a quick double play the out at second base does not register even though the second baseman clearly had the ball. Again, I could be completely wrong and according to nightwulf I am. But this is something I have noticed.
Quote from: Herndon Sucks on 08/24/04, 12:18:46 PM
Sometimes when trying to turn a quick double play the out at second base does not register even though the second baseman clearly had the ball.
This one's easy to explain. Look closer at second base when trying to turn the DP: you're probably not on the base and have thrown the ball before tagging. Patience is a virtue, my friend.
the difficulty in correcting that play is that you have to direct the guy to touch second base and then change directions by throwing a quick throw to first.... but usually if you can correct the tag at second then the guy at while reach firstbase safely... except for armas.
Quote from: fknmclane on 08/24/04, 12:21:17 PM
Quote from: Herndon Sucks on 08/24/04, 12:18:46 PM
Sometimes when trying to turn a quick double play the out at second base does not register even though the second baseman clearly had the ball.
This one's easy to explain. Look closer at second base when trying to turn the DP: you're probably not on the base and have thrown the ball before tagging. Patience is a virtue, my friend.
I think Herndon Sucks is explaining the quick throw phenomenon. Essentially, your fielder can be directly on the base but if you throw the ball away too quickly, sometimes it doesn't register as an out. This happens quite a bit at first base to me and does happen on occasion at second. Its just another RBI glitch.
I'm pretty sure it only happens when I hit the button to make the throw a second before the first or second baseman actually touches the ball.
Quote from: nightwulf on 08/11/04, 04:06:06 PM
That said, I'm not totally closed to the possibility. It's possible that a jump to the error-incrementing routine occurs through a relative address (which I haven't found by watching for calls to that routine in-game, and I highly doubt), or it's possible that controller use is somehow skewing the random number generator.
how did i miss this before? nightwulf himself says there may be a chance that the early throw bop exists.
Quote from: broiler on 07/28/08, 01:21:38 PM
how did i miss this before? nightwulf himself says there may be a chance that the early throw bop exists.
Probably by not reading, which you apparently still have trouble with. I acknowledged it as a possibility when it was brought to my attention, and after further review both Gantry and I dismissed it.
so you're saying there is a chance
Quote from: nightwulf on 08/10/04, 08:20:56 PM
So I was curious as to how the game determines if a fielder "BOP"s a play. It's a little surprising. Note that throughout this post I'm referring to errors made when fielding a ball (aka "BOP"), and not errors when throwing the ball (overthrown balls that miss the intended baseman).
First off, all fielders on any given team have the same chance to make an error. However, each team has it's own set chance for a BOP to occur on any given play. Here are the numbers per team:
California: 10
Boston: 7
Detroit: 12
Minnesota: 10
Houston: 8
New York: 11
St. Louis: 11
San Francisco: 9
American: 6
National: 4
Here's how it works. Any time a fielder touches the ball after it's been hit but before the ball touches a wall, a subroutine runs to determine whether an error will occur. A random one-byte number (0-255) is generated. If that number is less than your team's number listed above, an error occurs. That is, if you're fielding with St. Louis, you will make a fielding error if the random number is less than 11.
Toss those numbers though a calculator, and you can calculate the percent chance that a fielder will make a fielding error on any given play:
California: 3.9%
Boston: 2.7%
Detroit: 4.7%
Minnesota: 3.9%
Houston: 3.1%
New York: 4.3%
St. Louis: 4.3%
San Francisco: 3.5%
American: 2.3%
National: 1.6%
So, I've not yet looked for the code behind throwing errors (and that would be a hell of a lot harder), but as far as "BOP"s are concerned, every fielder is just as good as any other fielder on his same team. This also brings up a new discovery: the chance for your fielders to "BOP" is different for each team. Of the 8 non-all star teams, Boston is the best-fielding team, with Detroit coming in as the worst. Who would've thought?
Edit: Oh, if you'd like to screw with the numbers yourself, you can find them in the ROM at offset DA92-DA9B. Make that 1DA92-1DA9B if you're editing a 256k ROM. God, there's another thing to add to the editor ...
Nightwulf
I'm looking into the Fantasy RBI league statistics to see if the Fantasy teams placed in the respective team slots match up with this empirical evidence. Nomaaa's team, Chocolate Rain, was in the Detroit slot.
some stay dry and others feel the pain
On the fantasy ROM, you fixed everyone's BOP ratio so that they were the same.
Quote from: ultimate7 on 12/26/09, 02:33:08 PM
On the fantasy ROM, you fixed everyone's BOP ratio so that they were the same.
I realized that earlier today. I also realized there is no way I can go back and count all the bops because of how I scored games. A lot of errors were throwing errors and I did not record the bops as errors when a basehit was to the OF and the OF bops it but has no effect on the single or if a runner advanced due to the bop...saves a lot of time scoring the games (bear in mind that scoring the slot of games takes from 3-5 hours). There is no way I am watching all the games again for that precise data. Next season for sure.
Quote from: nightwulf on 08/10/04, 08:20:56 PM
So, I've not yet looked for the code behind throwing errors (and that would be a hell of a lot harder)
I'd considered this recently with a 1st baseman and his ability to occasionally drop- bop a throw that came his way...or trying to turn a double play but the 2nd baseman drops(bops) the throw from the short stop.
While in theory it sounds like it would make the game more realistic, i'd probably just have to throw a god damned table through a window sometime as a result. when it fucked me out of a win.