The more I think about it, the less confident I am about McGwire and the HOF.
Steroids aside, the dude had 1626 hits. I can't freakin' believe that. To put it in perspective, Dawson had over 1100 more hits.
McGwire hit .263
He drove in only 1414 runs.
Outside of his 583 homers (which is an incredible accomplishment), he didn't do a whole lot.
Based on the way the voters tend to go, I see Mac getting in, but not in his first time or two.
I'd say he should get in because of his 70 HR year (as well as several of his other monster years), though one can also point out that Maris didn't get in despite his record - a record that stood for an awfully long time (a helluva lot longer than McGwire's). As a biased Cards fan, I'd vote him in. I think the steroids may keep him out for a while, though. Ripken and Gwynn are in. I wouldn't necessarily say that Gwynn is a lock, but he and Ripken will probably be the class of 2007, and maybe some others.
How is Gwynn not a lock? I don't get this.
- 3,141 hits (18th All-Time)
- .338 career BA (20th All-Time)
- 15 time All-Star
- Led league in BA eight times
- 319 career steals
- Five time Gold Glove winner
In short, if Wade Boggs was a first-ballot HoF, then Tony Gwynn DEFINATELY is.
Gwynn is more of a lock than Ripken.
IMO:
Gwynn, Ripken, and Mac all get in (in that order of votes from most to least).
In Mac's deffense, he never tested positive for steroid use and there is no legal evidence that was using steroids.
Another interesting stat. The one thing that would keep him out is his lack of at-bats (due to a career with a nagging back injury). But shit, Puckett played in 4 fewer seasons and in 94 fewer games.
His most impressive stat to me is, he has more HRs/AB (9.4%) than anyone ever to play the game. That is more than 10% better than the Babe's.
But Babe Ruth also had a career .342 average, and, ya know, played in HUGE ballparks.
Quote from: Attezz on 01/12/06, 09:05:23 AM
But Babe Ruth also had a career .342 average, and, ya know, played in HUGE ballparks.
I was not saying (by any means at all) that Mac was better than the babe. I wasn't even talking about batting average.
Just pointing out the fact that a home run in almost 10% of his at bats is pretty freaking impressive over a carreer. Only compared to Babe Ruth since he is 2nd ranked all time in THAT stat.
I think McGwire will go in on the first ballot, although not as overwhelmingly as he would have if the whole roid issue never was brought into the spotlight.
I know it sounds bad, but he was never "caught". It doesn't make it right, but I think he got out of baseball at the right time. Palimero on the other hand...was caught..and might have problems getting into the HOF.
His deal with congress will kill him. I've heard lots of reporters (mostly on XM) say they don't want to vote "yes" until all the steroid info is out there. If that's the case, Big Mac doesnt have much of a hope.
If I had a vote, I'd probably vote "yes" for Big Mac.
583 homers is insane.
I'm still shocked that he had only 1600 hits. Shit, better than 1 out of every 3 of his hits went over the damned fence!
Yeah, the HR ratio is insane...a great example...his 2000 season...
236 At Bats...72 Hits...32 HR's
Must have been some good "juice" flowing. :D
For what it's worth, in 2001 there were .125 home runs per hit throughout the entire MLB.
Gwynn gets in over Ripken. There were a lot of sportswriters who felt that Ripken hurt his team by making the streak a bigger deal than winning games.
I wouldn't be one bit surprised if McGwire doesn't even get 50% of the vote on his first ballot. It might even be way, way lower.
He doesn't deserve to get in just because of the HR - look at his combined HR, BB, and OPS totals. Other than the relative lack of batting average, the guy was a super monster at the plate - he did more than just hit home runs.
he hit singles, too.
Hey, good to have you back, sir dryden!
Okay, Gwynn is a lock. I'd definitely vote for him. He is one of my favorite players of the 1990s. I love contact guys who don't hit homeruns, and he basically personifies that type of player.
Quote from: Nacho on 01/12/06, 02:02:42 PM
I love contact guys who don't hit homeruns, and he basically personifies that type of player. In other words, I love Sallys...
I'd like to choke McGwire with all the memorabilia I collected in 1998. He and his alter ego, Sammy Sosa, fooled everyone into believing a great thing was happening for baseball. Not only is he a cheater, but he's a liar who can't even stand up for himself. He also decided to announce his retirement to ESPN before telling anyone in St. Louis, including the Cardinals organization. What a fucking waste of space. I hope he never makes the Hall of Fame.
Quote from: BeeJay on 01/12/06, 05:41:16 PM
I'd like to choke McGwire with all the memorabilia I collected in 1998. He and his alter ego, Sammy Sosa, fooled everyone into believing a great thing was happening for baseball. Not only is he a cheater, but he's a liar who can't even stand up for himself. He also decided to announce his retirement to ESPN before telling anyone in St. Louis, including the Cardinals organization. What a fucking waste of space. I hope he never makes the Hall of Fame.
word
1998-The Joke's on you America
I am happy for the summer of roids (1998).
I like 70+ home run seasons.
Then again, that is why I like str8 pitch.
I think Canseco should make the hall since, no-one would have broken Maris' record w/o him.
BTW, Maris and Mantle used roids in the summer of '61. :P
McGwire won't get in on the first ballot, anyhow, because all the sportswriters hate him because of the steroids thing, and that's who votes on the Hall of Fame for the first 15 years. I'm a sportswriter, and I hate him because of the steroids thing too. Seems like even the great 'Potatoes' thinks Big Mac was up to something, based on what he said to the Associated Press in the middle of last year:
"Somebody definitely is guilty of taking steroids. You can't be breaking records hitting 200 home runs in three or four seasons," Reggie Jackson said a few months ago. "The greatest hitters in the history of the game didn't do that."
(note: link to that story is http://www.thehomerunguys.com/AP_Articles/If_Roger_Maris_had_an_asterisk.htm. Thoguh if you just type in "reggie jackson" mcgwire steroids in a search engine, you'll get a lot of interesting stuff too.)
They'll probably turn him down the first time just to send a message, then vote him in the next time baseball has a "dry year" for HOFers like this one. But anyway, if alcoholics, womanizers and wife-beaters make it in (Puckett, Boggs, Hack Wilson), why not McGwire? He'll make it.
But if McGwire makes it, why not Pete Rose? The guy just had a gambling problem, is all. Feh, I see all kinds of debates coming up about this shit next year.
Quote from: capt_taco on 01/13/06, 05:22:55 AM
But if McGwire makes it, why not Pete Rose? The guy just had a gambling problem, is all. Feh, I see all kinds of debates coming up about this shit next year.
This is how I would rationalize it.
Pete Rose was suspended for gambling at a time when this was a VERY well defined policy in baseball.
Mac "supposedly" (simply because he was never proven to use them) used steroids at a time when MLB had a very vague drug policy, where nothing was clearly defined.
The thing is, sportswriters probably won't care abot the legality or "proven" portion of things. They will make up their own mind.
Quote from: capt_taco on 01/13/06, 05:22:55 AM
But if McGwire makes it, why not Pete Rose?
Are you sure you're a sportswriter?
Lou Whitaker is black?
Quote from: capt_taco on 01/13/06, 05:22:55 AM
The guy just had a gambling problem, is all.
USOW (Understatement of the Week)
It doesn't matter about the gambling problem one way or the other. Rose agreed to a deal to put him on baseball's ineligible list - McGwire didn't. Simple as that.
A poll in the St. Louis Post-Dispatch only had 62% of readers voting McGwire into the HOF. For what it's worth.
However it should be noted Mike Schmidt voted against him 4200 times
Let's not talk about the past...
Quote from: JoeDirt on 01/13/06, 08:59:09 AM
Quote from: capt_taco on 01/13/06, 05:22:55 AM
The guy just had a gambling problem, is all.
USOW (Understatement of the Week)
Yeah, I know. But the anti-betting rules (and the lifetime ban) were meant for the guys who would take bribes, throw games, etc., like in the Black Sox scandal. The real cheaters, manipulators, and so on. Rose seems more like a pathetic problem gambler, closer to a crackhead or an alcoholic than someone who would actually try to ruin the game. He was stupid, yes, and it's his own stupid fault he's in this mess, and he handled it like a total jerk. But I feel more sorry for him for being that way than angry at him for what he did.
And a bigger deal to me is that the whole gambling scandal happened well after he was done playing. It separates the scandal from the things he accomplished on the field, though maybe it shouldn't. I don't know; I still think it just looks retarded not to have the all-time hits leader in the Hall, as if that's somehow going to make everyone forget he got thousands of hits. Ban him from managing or being involved in the game, and I understand that. I just think keeping him out of the Hall is more mean-spirited than anything, and MLB looks really unnecessarily stubborn.
Note: This doesn't apply to the stuff in this particular post, but be aware that a significant portion of the time I post on here, it's after I just returned from getting hammered at the bars. And when I drink, I don't fuck around.
Why is this in the RBI forum. This shold be in the anything goes forum so I can respond to it.
Anyways.
First. Ripken will get a higher percentage of the vote than Gwynn.
Second. McGwire does not get in on the first ballot. I wouldn't be surprised if he had to wait 3-5 years.
Ripken and Gwynn are the only HOF inductees next year.
Hey, who let Vit read the RBI forum, this is supposed to be the forum where we can make fun of him.
capt taco, Rose's deal was that sometimes he'd bet on the Reds. Sometimes he wouldn't.
When he didn't bet on the Reds, the bookies basically considered that a day that pete thought that the reds would lose.
Rose fucked himself when he bet on his team. The clubhouse rule states that if you bet on baseball, you are suspended for a year. If you bet on games you have a hand in, you are suspended for life.
pete rose was inducted into the wrestling hall of fame. personally, i think that is cooler than the baseball hall of fame.
Quote from: broiler on 01/14/06, 07:21:12 PM
pete rose was inducted into the hair style hall of fame. personally, i think that is cooler than the baseball hall of fame.
Looking at his lifetime stats, the numbers are far form unanimous hall of fame credentials. He only really had two hall of fame type seasons in 98 and 99, in large part to him playing 147 games both seasons (a career high). He doesn't have high hit or RBI totals; he was a pour fielder, who only appeared in 100 games 7 of his 16 big league seasons. The only thing that would put McGwire in the Hall are his outstanding power numbers; numbers that are not nearly as credible as they were a few years ago.
He also only averaged 161 R+RBI a season, and it's not as if he didn't play on quality offensive teams either.
He also has some wicked acne scars.
Didn't McGwire win 2 Gold Gloves?
the resident sabr stat dudes will tell you he won those GG with his bat. . . . . and I'd have to agree.
The man was / is so bulked up he can't even touch his pecker. Fielding grounders were brutal for the guy.
Quote from: Caveman on 01/15/06, 07:00:19 PM
He (McGwire) only really had two hall of fame type seasons in 98 and 99, in large part to him playing 147 games both seasons (a career high).
How can you possibly say this:
YR G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG
'87 151 557 97 161 28 4 49 118 1 1 71 131 .289 .370 .618
'92 139 467 87 125 22 0 42 104 0 1 90 105 .268 .385 .585
'96 130 423 104 132 21 0 52 113 0 0 116 112 .312 .467 .730
'97 156 540 86 148 27 0 58 123 3 0 101 159 .274 .393 .646
'98 155 509 130 152 21 0 70 147 1 0 162 155 .299 .470 .752
'99 153 521 118 145 21 1 65 147 0 0 133 141 .278 .424 .697
'00 89 236 60 72 8 0 32 73 1 0 76 78 .305 .483 .746
EDIT: 'cause I suck at lining stats up and don't recall how BDawk/Nightwulf said to do it.
JoeD - In the future, changing the font to something monospaced like courier will do the trick. I think there's an icon for it on the main reply, but I'm using Quick Reply and am too lazy to check. Hope that helps!
Stat fuck up - my bad.
Still the hits, and lack of defense just don't do it for me...o yea and the fact that he is most likely a steroid user and all of his hall of fame like numbers are power numbers. With this considered i think he needed three or more good years to be first ballot HOF.
I do think he has a good cance at making it in, this does not mean i would vote for him.
I've sad it once and I'll say it again....Tony Gwynn was the best hitter of our generation. He is a complete lock. McGwire will definitely not make the HOF in 2007 and would bet good money on it. Seriously...who wants to bet?
I desperately want to bet, but I'd prefer to bet on your side.
Thanks sir Gantry. It is true that I am the one who is dumb.
I loved watching Tony Gwynn play. The last AB i watched him take was vs. the giants in his final season, the crowd gave him a standing ovation and shit . I recall it being a long Gwynn like at bat, around 10 pitches. He eventually lined the a ball right down the 1st based side only to have extra bases taken away from him by JT in like the 8th, surely is last AB in San Francisco. I was pretty mad that the ball didnt go through. I watch Tony Gwynn play alot in person and he should be, and will be a 1st ballot HOFer.
Barry Bonds is the best hitter of our generation. If you don't think so, you haven't been paying attention (steroids aside).
McGwire had many amazing seasons - '96 (52 HR in only 130 G), '97, '98, '99...
That's a lot of insane years, steroids or no. And to say that his "only" qualification is hitting lots of home runs and drawing lots of walks, well, what else should he have to do? Having a higher career OPS than Mickey Mantle, well, that's pretty impressive, I'd say.
ONLY 1,414 RBI'S??? That's pretty damn good for a 16-year career!! That's a higher total than more than a dozen Hall of Famers have HITS. The last 3 years of Big Mac's career (1999-2001), he had more rbi's than hits each season. Steroids or not, that's still pretty impressive. Remember, he's had all the back and heel injuries too, even long before the steroid talk.
And with 583 homers, he's gotta be elected in some year, just might not be 2007.
Anyway, congrats to Bruce Sutter for being elected in 2006 (feh). Lee Smith 478 saves Lee Smith 478 saves Lee Smith 478 saves Lee Smith 478 saves Lee Smith 478 saves Lee Smith 478 saves Lee Smith 478 saves Lee Smith 478 saves Lee Smith 478 saves, What in the hell were the voters NOT smoking or snorting???
It's over for Gossage, Dawson, Blyleven and Rice in my opinion..
Nice first post.
Do you think Gossage, Dawson, Blyleven and Rice are undeserving or do you think the voters won't do the right thing and put 'em in?
If history holds true, Dawson and Rice will get in --- they eclipsed the 60 percent mark (didn't they?).
Not to speak for him, but I definitely took it as this was their last chance to get voted in. I'm inclined to agree, though I'm far from an expert on the whole voting situation..
I'd like to point out that McGwire stole three bases in 1997 without getting caught stealing! If that doesn't help his HoF credentials, nothing will...
It wasn't their last chance. In all likelihood, Dawson and Rice will be elected in a few years.
A player's hall eligibility ends one of three ways:
They are elected
They fail to get 5% on a given ballot
They spend 15 years on the ballot without being elected
They then move to the veteran's committee (after 15 years have elapsed, if not elected).
Whoops, I didn't explain myself well. Though I didn't know the exact details above (thanks pretty lady) I meant "last chance" as in "last realistic chance to get the 75% or whatever"
I don't know enough about the veterans committee, except they are taking their sweet fucking time on Santo. How many folks have they elected in the last 15 or so years?
Dawson and Rice are very likely to get elected in 3 years or so. They have lots of eligibility left (of course, Rice doesn't belong in the hall of fame, but that's a different thread).
The VC (in its new form) meets every 2 years, and is composed of all of the living hall of fame players, who need to vote 75% for a given player to elect them. In all likelihood (given that people like Mike Schmidt have said that no one who isn't there deserves to be there) they will not elect anyone else, and the procedure for election will be redrawn.
The VC is responsible for most of the hall of fame's historical mistakes (other than Tony Perez, anyway). In particular, there were 2 bad periods for the VC - one when Frankie Frisch led the committee and filled the hall of fame with his former teammates (Freddie Lindstrom, Jesse Haines, Chick Hafey, George Kelly, Jim Bottomley...) who as a group represent the absolute worst hall of famers ever, and the Tommy McCarthy period, when people were elected for ridiculous reasons.
Since 1998, the VC has elected:
George Davis
Larry Doby
Lee MacPhail
Joe Rogan
Orlando Cepeda
Nestor Chylak
Frank Selee
Joe Williams
Sparky Anderson
Bid McPhee
Turkey Stearnes
Bill Mazeroski
Hilton Smith
Some of these, like Joe Rogan and Joe Williams, were great, long-overdue selections.
The Mazeroski selection was so bad, it is pretty much what led to the committee being re-formed.
Actual worst hall of famer, by the way:
Morgan Bulkeley. Who?
http://www.all-baseball.com/archives/018888.html
"Believe it or not, Bulkeley's entire contribution to Major League Baseball was in his figurehead title of National League President in 1876. No one claims he organized the National League (that was William Hulbert) or that he actually did anything of note in his single year in office. There's no proof that the man so much as attended a Major League game. He was elected purely because American League founder Ban Johnson was a shoo-in for 1937, and the powers-that-be wanted some NL figure- anyone at all- to balance him out."
I'm back.
I didn't mean last chance for those guys either, I know about the less than 5% and yer out thing. They just wont have as good of chances next year with Gwynn/Ripken, and possibly McGwire.
I think all those guys mentioned are most deserving for election.
Tim Raines gets his first shot I THINK, next year, maybe 2008, can't remember if he retired in '01 or '02. But we will and should have at least two RBI'ers get elected next year, and McGwire is the iffy one for 1st ballot. And Rainsey isn't far behind.
Raines willl never get in and that's extremely shitty. I think he was nearly as good as Rickey Rickey.
Raines couldn't hold Rickey B Rickey's jock.
Raines was good, but not nearly that good.
I'd give Raines HOF consideration. . . . . being the liberal that I am.
Quote from: Ryno on 01/12/06, 11:52:18 AM
he hit singles, too.
Hey, good to have you back, sir dryden!
McGwire's singles were probably poorly hit steroid blasts that bounced off the wall, instead of landing in the seats. Most guys would get a double, or triple off of them
McGwire needs some Bondo for his face.
I hate the McGwire/Canseco era of the A's by the way.
Quote from: Bonny on 01/20/06, 08:43:54 AM
I hate the McGwire/Canseco era of the A's by the way.
That might be my favorite era growing up.
This was the same time as the Yount/Molitor era for the Brew Crew.
The Royals spent a lot of money and had great teams on paper, but always finished behind the A's. Im talking late 80's early 90's.
They had some great games though.
Quote from: fknmclane on 01/19/06, 11:01:43 PM
Raines willl never get in and that's extremely shitty. I think he was nearly as good as Rickey Rickey.
In Rob Neyer's Big Book of Baseball Lineups, he points out that Raines was the second-best leadoff man of all-time (behind Rickey Henderson), probably the best player in the NL during '85-'86, and should be a Hall of Famer. He also says that he doesn't think he'll ever make it, because the voters don't realize the value of walks and won't notice him because he was always in Rickey's shadow as a leadoff hitter.
You also hear people calling Raines a "compiler". Dude owned the 80's and was a solid player thru most of the 90's
He should be in.
He stole over 800 bases at an 85% rate, career OBP of .385, reached base just short of 4000 times in his career (2600+ hits, 1300+ walks) and scored over 1500 runs. He should be in, not first ballot, but maybe in 5 years.
Montreal guys get screwd by voters.
Quote from: BeefMaster on 01/20/06, 10:24:01 AM
Quote from: fknmclane on 01/19/06, 11:01:43 PM
Raines willl never get in and that's extremely shitty. I think he was nearly as good as Rickey Rickey.
In Rob Neyer's Big Book of Baseball Lineups, he points out that Raines was the second-best leadoff man of all-time (behind Rickey Henderson), probably the best player in the NL during '85-'86, and should be a Hall of Famer. He also says that he doesn't think he'll ever make it, because the voters don't realize the value of walks and won't notice him because he was always in Rickey's shadow as a leadoff hitter.
Thanks for confirming that like Rob Neyer, I'm very smart.
Raines should be an absolute mortal-lock hall of famer. He'll be lucky if he even comes close to getting in, though.
Quote from: Dryden on 01/20/06, 12:01:06 PM
Raines should be an absolute mortal-lock hall of famer. He'll be lucky if he even comes close to getting in, though.
That's so fucked up. I guess he should have hit a homer to win the Series or something.
Raines has the numbers, we'll see. I say yes. Might depend on who is up for election that year.
I also have Rob Neyer's Big Book of Baseball Lineups. It's so cool. I emailed him and asked if a Big Book Part II is coming in the near future, but he said around 2009 or 2010 he's gonna consider doing another one.
I love the Iron Glove section, LOL it's so funny to read.
Raines' problem is he did a lot of things well that aren't well appreciated - he was a good fielder, stole a ton of bases at a very high success rate (but not as many as Rickey), walked a ton (but not as much as Rickey), got on base a ton (but not as much as Rickey), had a bit of power (but not as much as Rickey) and scored a lot of runs (which HOF voters have never appreciated). And he has the whole cocaine thing working against him.
He's clearly one of the best leadoff hitters ever, but he's been so totally overshadowed by playing in Montreal most of his career and by Rickey, no one really appreciates what he brought to the table. It will almost certainly take years for his candidacy to pick up any kind of momentum at all.