Okay, here's the situation. You need to pick an RBIer to get a hit. The hit can't be a home run. You have one at bat, an out is in out (obviously), but so is a home run. You have to swing away, meaning you can't just lay down a bunt with Coleman or Raines or Smith to get on base. You obviously don't want to choose Dawson or McGwire or Bell, because chances are good it'll be hit out of the park.
You obviously want someone with lower power (but maybe not TOO low?), good contact, and good speed, right?
Who do you choose?
I would have made this a poll if I had an obvious list of good options.
Is there a runner on first base. THIS IS CRITICAL
BASES EMPTY
I'm still going with a powerful guy, because they are more likely to get hits in the outfield. But not the biggest of the big bats. Give me Wally Joyner...
If its against the CPU, think I would go with Vince Coleman and do an opposite field job since there won't be a quick throw to get him out. You risk a pop up, but given the (strange) parameters of the question, Coleman seems like a logical choice.
Quote from: Shooty on 05/02/18, 12:58:57 PM
If its against the CPU, think I would go with Vince Coleman and do an opposite field job since there won't be a quick throw to get him out. You risk a pop up, but given the (strange) parameters of the question, Coleman seems like a logical choice.
This was my thought as well. Swing late, hope the third baseman or shortstop misses the quick throw or manage into a slow roller.
Joyner is not a bad choice. Tim Raines is faster, slightly less power, and slightly better contact.
Coleman is a bad choice.
Explain why Coleman is bad, given Shooty and I's reasoning.
Raines would be my second choice - lower chance of an easy slow roller, but better chance to drop one behind the shortstop (given the no-homer stipulation, I assume you hold up on the D-pad when you swing in either case).
I guess this question can be broken down into two different questions: When simming CPU to CPU, who would you choose? When you get to actually control the batter, who do you choose?
I guess if we had someone who liked fantasy RBI stats as much as Gerlost likes Dead Pool stats, we could look into an answer to this.
Quote from: BeefMaster on 05/02/18, 01:11:57 PM
Explain why Coleman is bad, given Shooty and I's reasoning.
Raines would be my second choice - lower chance of an easy slow roller, but better chance to drop one behind the shortstop (given the no-homer stipulation, I assume you hold up on the D-pad when you swing in either case).
Coleman has bad contact and anything hit in the air seems less likely to fall than if you bad with Raines.
Whats the situation wherein a base hit is more valuable than a homer?
Quote from: Reds on 05/02/18, 01:16:06 PM
Whats the situation wherein a base hit is more valuable than a homer?
This one.
Raines speed does give him the nod over Joyner, that's a better call
Trammel and Pucket might be in the conversation too.
But Raines/Trammell/etc have a good chance to hit a homer...which is bad for some reason in this case. Coleman is the obvious choice for this scenario.
Coleman seems much more likely to hit a soft pop up than those other guys.
I think we need someone to sim an anti-home run derby.
Quote from: Shooty on 05/02/18, 01:35:54 PM
But Raines/Trammell/etc have a good chance to hit a homer...which is bad for some reason in this case. Coleman is the obvious choice for this scenario.
Assuming this is curve pitch against a competent human opponent, the odds of getting a "bad swing hit" with a more powerful hitter is much higher with Raines than Coleman. In a normal game with good pitching you see what 2-5 dingers per team? Plus if you want to go for the Pettis, Raines is plenty fast to pull that off.
But a weak ground ball to the left side of the infield is more preferable than a hard one. Hence, Coleman.
IMO it's easy to pitch around the Pettis hit as a human pitcher, you aren't going to be able to be precise enough with your location as a batter. Hence, Raines
Raines isn't likely to hit it out of the park if you're aiming opposite field.
It's about time we've had a thread get this spicy!
Quote from: Nacho on 05/02/18, 02:24:35 PM
Raines isn't likely to hit it out of the park if you're aiming opposite field.
Yeah, the odds of Raines hitting a homer with a good human pitcher is pretty low - even if swinging away. But his power lets you get base hits where Coleman would basically pop everything up.
Sticking with Coleman.
Assuming either Raines or Coleman, you're going to want to go opposite field with either of them. If either of them get it in the air opposite field its 90% likely its going to be caught. If they hit a ground ball, I'd rather have weak contact than good contact...more likely to beat it out to first.
So sticking with Coleman.
Quote from: Nacho on 05/02/18, 01:12:50 PM
I guess this question can be broken down into two different questions: When simming CPU to CPU, who would you choose? When you get to actually control the batter, who do you choose?
I was assuming human control, so you can have a better chance to time the late swing and also hold up for a better chance at a ground ball. CPU isn't gonna do either of those things on purpose (although I guess I don't know if there's CPU logic for the up+A/down+A swing style; not sure how you'd tell that without reading the live code, nighwulf-style).
Coleman must have a really high batting average in fantasy RBI then, right?
Batting average includes homers.
Quote from: BeefMaster on 05/02/18, 02:40:40 PM
and also hold up for a better chance at a ground ball.
Wait, this is a thing? Like a reverse retreat?
Quote from: Shooty on 05/02/18, 02:32:56 PM
Sticking with Coleman.
Assuming either Raines or Coleman, you're going to want to go opposite field with either of them. If either of them get it in the air opposite field its 90% likely its going to be caught. If they hit a ground ball, I'd rather have weak contact than good contact...more likely to beat it out to first.
So sticking with Coleman.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FgOVBiS9PaA
Just realized that I can calculate BABIP out of fighton's stat spreadsheets... that would tell you who was the best for computer players (unless you consider homers as outs in this scenario, like it's a slow-pitch softball game and they're over the home run limit or something). Humans still get the advantages of swinging for opposite-field contact and ground balls, so that'd be less authoritative.
Quote from: BeefMaster on 05/02/18, 02:44:15 PM
Just realized that I can calculate BABIP out of fighton's stat spreadsheets... that would tell you who was the best for computer players (unless you consider homers as outs in this scenario, like it's a slow-pitch softball game and they're over the home run limit or something). Humans still get the advantages of swinging for opposite-field contact and ground balls, so that'd be less authoritative.
This is what I'm assuming.
Quote from: Gantry on 05/02/18, 02:42:59 PM
Quote from: BeefMaster on 05/02/18, 02:40:40 PM
and also hold up for a better chance at a ground ball.
Wait, this is a thing? Like a reverse retreat?
I believe it is.
Quote from: Shooty on 05/02/18, 02:55:10 PM
Quote from: Gantry on 05/02/18, 02:42:59 PM
Quote from: BeefMaster on 05/02/18, 02:40:40 PM
and also hold up for a better chance at a ground ball.
Wait, this is a thing? Like a reverse retreat?
I believe it is.
Yeah, I thought that was established a few years ago.
Might have been, I've been quite busy
Took the stat spreadsheet from this post (https://forums.dee-nee.com/index.php?topic=31033.msg1145411#msg1145411) and added a column to the front page calculating BABIP.
COLEMAN: .561
RAINES: .444
However... Coleman did not have the highest BABIP in the league. Among regular starters (throwing out some crazy small-sample-size stuff), here is the top ten:
George Bell: .684
Andre Dawson: .604
Rich Gedman: .576
Doug DeCinces: .574
Jose Canseco: .565
Vince Coleman: .561
Tom Brunanski: .556
Gary Carter: .556
Dale Murphy: .550
Reggie Jackson: .528
Coleman is the only one in the top nine that's not a righthanded slugger.
But BABIP doesn't take into account HRs being counted as outs. If you count all the home runs as o-fers, then I bet Coleman would rise to the top (or very close to it).
Here's the shocking stats from that excel spread sheet:
Non-homers/AB:
1) Rich Gedman 34/61 = .557
2) Vince Coleman: 23/42 = .548
3) George Bell: 39/72 = .542
These were the only 3 over .500.
Decinces, HoJo, Madlock, Carter, Heath, Murphy, Canseco round out the top 10.
I suspect if you take a larger sample size, Coleman would rise to the top.
Raines was down the list was 24/65 = .369
Other factors that favor Coleman.
1) Those averages include fielder's choices. If all the at bats are with the bases empty, more of Coleman's fielder's choices would end up as hits compared to Gedman or Bell because of his speed.
2) If you are controlling the hitter, you have more control to hit opposite field, increasing Coleman's hit potential.
Those stats involve a CPU pitcher and the AWFUL CPU fielding, can't give them much credence. The CPU uses the wrong guy to field the ball, lets grounders through that humans would get, throw to the wrong bases, throw to bases with nobody on base, etc. Zero parallel to a real human.
If you ground to a fielder at third, second, first or third with Coleman against a real person who knows how to field - you aren't getting a hit. In fantasy RBI a bunch of those end up as hits. It's an advantage when you are playing against the CPU to hit grounders because they fuck up the fielding so much. Balls in the air they rarely mess up.
Quote from: Shooty on 05/02/18, 03:16:27 PM
But BABIP doesn't take into account HRs being counted as outs. If you count all the home runs as o-fers, then I bet Coleman would rise to the top (or very close to it).
I was going with the slightly-less-ridiculous idea that homers would be counted as fouls rather than outs.
Quote from: BeefMaster on 05/02/18, 03:40:36 PM
Quote from: Shooty on 05/02/18, 03:16:27 PM
But BABIP doesn't take into account HRs being counted as outs. If you count all the home runs as o-fers, then I bet Coleman would rise to the top (or very close to it).
I was going with the slightly-less-ridiculous idea that homers would be counted as fouls rather than outs.
What's usually the policy in softball leagues (where teams are only allowed so many HRs/game) when a player hits a HR when the team is over the limit?
i opened this thread with the gut reaction of Tim Raines, while other former frbi diplomats coming to mind like coleman & pettis . gantry did a nice job of supporting the camp. i'd probably still go with one of those 3
Quote from: Nacho on 05/02/18, 04:17:45 PM
Quote from: BeefMaster on 05/02/18, 03:40:36 PM
Quote from: Shooty on 05/02/18, 03:16:27 PM
But BABIP doesn't take into account HRs being counted as outs. If you count all the home runs as o-fers, then I bet Coleman would rise to the top (or very close to it).
I was going with the slightly-less-ridiculous idea that homers would be counted as fouls rather than outs.
What's usually the policy in softball leagues (where teams are only allowed so many HRs/game) when a player hits a HR when the team is over the limit?
In my league it's a foul.
Quote from: BeefMaster on 05/02/18, 02:57:17 PM
Quote from: Shooty on 05/02/18, 02:55:10 PM
Quote from: Gantry on 05/02/18, 02:42:59 PM
Quote from: BeefMaster on 05/02/18, 02:40:40 PM
and also hold up for a better chance at a ground ball.
Wait, this is a thing? Like a reverse retreat?
I believe it is.
Yeah, I thought that was established a few years ago.
Found it: https://forums.dee-nee.com/index.php?topic=28020.0
Quote from: BeefMaster on 05/02/18, 08:17:32 PM
Quote from: Nacho on 05/02/18, 04:17:45 PM
Quote from: BeefMaster on 05/02/18, 03:40:36 PM
Quote from: Shooty on 05/02/18, 03:16:27 PM
But BABIP doesn't take into account HRs being counted as outs. If you count all the home runs as o-fers, then I bet Coleman would rise to the top (or very close to it).
I was going with the slightly-less-ridiculous idea that homers would be counted as fouls rather than outs.
What's usually the policy in softball leagues (where teams are only allowed so many HRs/game) when a player hits a HR when the team is over the limit?
In my league it's a foul.
i played in a league where homers over the limit were outs/no runners advance
i was thinking Brunansky or Hrbek at first, but that's probably way too much power. Joyner or Raines seem like solid choices so i'll agree with them. Maybe throw Nails in there as well.
Bay Hee 24/7 son, when it Raines it pourz
I like that Gedman made a list
Human v Human I am going with Coleman or Raines, maybe even Lopes if I want a righty.
Raines for sure.