You need a base hit. Who do you choose?

[Nacho]

Raines isn't likely to hit it out of the park if you're aiming opposite field.

[Nacho]

It's about time we've had a thread get this spicy!

[Gantry]

Raines isn't likely to hit it out of the park if you're aiming opposite field.

Yeah, the odds of Raines hitting a homer with a good human pitcher is pretty low - even if swinging away.  But his power lets you get base hits where Coleman would basically pop everything up. 

[Shooty]

Sticking with Coleman. 

Assuming either Raines or Coleman, you're going to want to go opposite field with either of them.  If either of them get it in the air opposite field its 90% likely its going to be caught.  If they hit a ground ball, I'd rather have weak contact than good contact...more likely to beat it out to first. 

So sticking with Coleman.

[BeefMaster]

I guess this question can be broken down into two different questions: When simming CPU to CPU, who would you choose? When you get to actually control the batter, who do you choose?

I was assuming human control, so you can have a better chance to time the late swing and also hold up for a better chance at a ground ball.  CPU isn't gonna do either of those things on purpose (although I guess I don't know if there's CPU logic for the up+A/down+A swing style; not sure how you'd tell that without reading the live code, nighwulf-style).

[Nacho]

Coleman must have a really high batting average in fantasy RBI then, right?

[BeefMaster]

Batting average includes homers.

[Gantry]

and also hold up for a better chance at a ground ball. 

Wait, this is a thing?  Like a reverse retreat?

[Gantry]

Sticking with Coleman. 

Assuming either Raines or Coleman, you're going to want to go opposite field with either of them.  If either of them get it in the air opposite field its 90% likely its going to be caught.  If they hit a ground ball, I'd rather have weak contact than good contact...more likely to beat it out to first. 

So sticking with Coleman.

[BeefMaster]

Just realized that I can calculate BABIP out of fighton's stat spreadsheets... that would tell you who was the best for computer players (unless you consider homers as outs in this scenario, like it's a slow-pitch softball game and they're over the home run limit or something).  Humans still get the advantages of swinging for opposite-field contact and ground balls, so that'd be less authoritative.

[Shooty]

Just realized that I can calculate BABIP out of fighton's stat spreadsheets... that would tell you who was the best for computer players (unless you consider homers as outs in this scenario, like it's a slow-pitch softball game and they're over the home run limit or something).  Humans still get the advantages of swinging for opposite-field contact and ground balls, so that'd be less authoritative.

This is what I'm assuming.

[Shooty]

and also hold up for a better chance at a ground ball. 

Wait, this is a thing?  Like a reverse retreat?

I believe it is.

[BeefMaster]

and also hold up for a better chance at a ground ball. 

Wait, this is a thing?  Like a reverse retreat?

I believe it is.

Yeah, I thought that was established a few years ago.

[Gantry]

Might have been, I've been quite busy

[BeefMaster]

Took the stat spreadsheet from this post and added a column to the front page calculating BABIP.

COLEMAN: .561
RAINES: .444

However... Coleman did not have the highest BABIP in the league.  Among regular starters (throwing out some crazy small-sample-size stuff), here is the top ten:

George Bell: .684
Andre Dawson: .604
Rich Gedman: .576
Doug DeCinces: .574
Jose Canseco: .565
Vince Coleman: .561
Tom Brunanski: .556
Gary Carter: .556
Dale Murphy: .550
Reggie Jackson: .528

Coleman is the only one in the top nine that's not a righthanded slugger.

[Shooty]

But BABIP doesn't take into account HRs being counted as outs.  If you count all the home runs as o-fers, then I bet Coleman would rise to the top (or very close to it).

[Shooty]

Here's the shocking stats from that excel spread sheet:

Non-homers/AB:

1) Rich Gedman 34/61 = .557
2) Vince Coleman: 23/42 = .548
3) George Bell: 39/72 = .542


These were the only 3 over .500. 

Decinces, HoJo, Madlock, Carter, Heath, Murphy, Canseco round out the top 10. 

I suspect if you take a larger sample size, Coleman would rise to the top.

Raines was down the list was 24/65 = .369

[Shooty]

Other factors that favor Coleman. 

1) Those averages include fielder's choices.  If all the at bats are with the bases empty, more of Coleman's fielder's choices would end up as hits compared to Gedman or Bell because of his speed.   

2) If you are controlling the hitter, you have more control to hit opposite field, increasing Coleman's hit potential.

[Gantry]

Those stats involve a CPU pitcher and the AWFUL CPU fielding, can't give them much credence.  The CPU uses the wrong guy to field the ball, lets grounders through that humans would get, throw to the wrong bases, throw to bases with nobody on base, etc.  Zero parallel to a real human.

If you ground to a fielder at third, second, first or third with Coleman against a real person who knows how to field - you aren't getting a hit.  In fantasy RBI a bunch of those end up as hits.  It's an advantage when you are playing against the CPU to hit grounders because they fuck up the fielding so much.  Balls in the air they rarely mess up.   

[BeefMaster]

But BABIP doesn't take into account HRs being counted as outs.  If you count all the home runs as o-fers, then I bet Coleman would rise to the top (or very close to it).

I was going with the slightly-less-ridiculous idea that homers would be counted as fouls rather than outs.