Contact Equation pt.2

[MarquisEXB]

Gantry,

Since the other one got locked, I'll answer your questions here. I'm not at my computer, so I can't give all the facts that you need.

It should be easy to see what contact does. The boundaries are somewhere between 4 & 38. I think Rafael Santana was the 38, and Boggs was the 4 (could be wrong). I could (and will, once I get to my PC) make two teams - one where all the players have 1 contact & the other where they are all 38 or even 100 or 255, while keeping the rest of the stats the same. I'm sure if I did a watch or played straight pitch for a few games with these two teams, it would be apparent what the contact rating does & I would imagine the team with the 1 contact to do much better hitting wise.

Based on my knowledge of other games, my guess is contact gives you a larger part of the bat to get the better hits. IE. let's say hitting with Rafael Santana you have to hit the ball on the best spot of his bat to get his max power transferred to the ball. Whereas Boggs' "sweet spot" would be larger, so that you wouldn't have to hit the ball in that exact spot, but could be off by a bit.

As for assigning ratings, the equation gives you a pretty good baseline rating for contact. I mean 93% of the original is +/-4 which tells us we should be on the right track. I'm not at my PC, so I can't tell you who the worst/best were. The very worst were like +/-7 or so. It's possible that they used a more complicated equation, maybe including OBP & SLG. A good look at those who are far off from the equation's stats for those years in comparrison with their actual stats should tell us if this is true or not. My guess is that they had an equation similar to this & maybe made it up as they went along.

I will get you the list of guys that are furthest off & see if we can nail this down.

Mike

[Gantry]

Let me know how those results turn out Marquis, it should be interesting...

The problem with your theory on contact is that the players with low contact ratings by and large aren't any good.  Boggs/Molitor/Gwynn don't really get more hits than your average schmo and get less hits than your average power hitter.  Also, the players with the high power seem to be the most forgiving in terms of hits/homers from any type of swing.  Evans and Jackson can swing as early or late as they want and still get on base....

I think contact might have an effect on what you described, but it's impact is so low compared to  power that it is for all intensive purposes useless.  But there's one good way to find out...  

[Gantry]

Here are the sub-10 contact numbers I see from my team pages:

Boggs - 4
Molitor - 6
Puckett - 6
Trammell - 6
Gwynn - 7
Mattingly - 8
Aldrete - 8

By and large a disappointing set of players.  That's why I feel that whatever contact does, it doesn't do much.  But don't let me discourage you, I'm definitely looking forward to what you've found out.  And I've been wrong before...

[BeefMaster]

Hey, Marquis.  I'm really curious what you come up with for the purpose of the contact rating.  My guess is what you said - they get a more forgiving result from a bad swing.  Like Gantry said, though, it doesn't seem to make much difference.

As for your hypothesizing about the formula used to derive the ratings, I have another theory - there isn't one.  I'm sure they're heavily influenced by stats (for example, McGwire's 49 jacks means he'll get a high power rating), but I'd assume that the programmers took some liberties based on their knowledge of the game and external factors such as the player's home park and past performance.  This explains why Reggie Jackson has a higher power rating than Big Mac despite having less homers.

I'm curious, Marquis - did you do any similar fiddling with your ratings in your RBI 2002 ROMs?  I'm thinking mostly about platoon players (i.e. the Twins right fielders), guys who were injured (i.e. Moises Alou), and guys whose counting stats are depressed by other factors (i.e. Barry Bonds, who walks a lot and plays in a pitchers' park).

[MarquisEXB]

Hey, Marquis.  I'm really curious what you come up with for the purpose of the contact rating.  My guess is what you said - they get a more forgiving result from a bad swing.  Like Gantry said, though, it doesn't seem to make much difference.

This reminds me of FPS '96/98. A hitter's prowness could be directly related to his power rating, and not to his contact. However in that game you could edit the .ini file so that contact did mean something. I don't expect contact to be worth much more than power, however I expect when power is similar the contact would make a difference. I will check this out as soon as I get a free moment.

As for your hypothesizing about the formula used to derive the ratings, I have another theory - there isn't one.  I'm sure they're heavily influenced by stats (for example, McGwire's 49 jacks means he'll get a high power rating), but I'd assume that the programmers took some liberties based on their knowledge of the game and external factors such as the player's home park and past performance.  This explains why Reggie Jackson has a higher power rating than Big Mac despite having less homers.

I would agree with the power ratings coming out of thin air. That's why I don't seem to be able to come up with an equation for it. I had some, but for some players they are up to 70 points off. That's too big a swing for my taste. Your example is perfect, the fact that they used Reggie's 1982 stats & he still has a higher power than Big Mac is a farse. (Big Mac outhomered & outslugged Reggie).

I'm curious, Marquis - did you do any similar fiddling with your ratings in your RBI 2002 ROMs?

I absolutely fiddled with the stats on my roms. For example even though my equation approximated contact very well, I did move them up to +/-3 points. I based this on their OBP. No equation, just by eye (for example I think Giambi got -3 due to his obscenely high OBP).

The power number I pretty much did by eye. Where possible I used baseball-reference & looked at their slugging. My biggest reference was the first rom.

I'm thinking mostly about platoon players (i.e. the Twins right fielders), guys who were injured (i.e. Moises Alou), and guys whose counting stats are depressed by other factors (i.e. Barry Bonds, who walks a lot and plays in a pitchers' park).

Since I wasn't using such a rigid method - I didn't modify the hitters too much for being in a hitter/pitchers park. This is a good idea though - I'm sure the A's BA could go up a little due their home stadium. For platoon players I gave them a little boost (I think), because I used slugging as a secondary tool.

For the starting pitchers I used ERA+, so they are definately compensated for their home stadium.

As for Barry Bonds, how much better than 2CNT 975POWER can he get?   (don't forget the 128 speed!)

Mike

[MarquisEXB]

OK here we go.

Guys that my equation make worse than they were in the game:

-6
Pettis  (my cnt-26 - game's 20)

-5
Leonrd
Heath

-4
Hrbek
Carter
CDavis
Joyner
Dwning
Bucknr
Smally
Boone
Doran
JUribe

Players that my equation made better than the game rating's

+9
Rafael Santana (tied for worst cnt with 38)

+7
Gwynn  (should be 0 according to my equation)

+6
Rynlds
Morris

+5
Guerro
Burks

+4
Baylor
Jones
Whitkr
Brookn
T.Pena
Lake  

Mike

[Gantry]

Well done Mike, pretty amazing that Gwynn could have actually come in at a zero contact!  

Poor Rafael Santana got the +9 shaft, he was crappy enough to being with...