Ratings Theory - The off-speed pitch

[Turd]

I've been thinking about the way I rate the off-speed pitch for my yearly ROM, and I wanted to get some feedback from people on this because I might want to tweak some things.

When rating pitchers, I make their fastball top speed true to life based on real data, and then I rate their curve top speed based on a combination of their ability to strike out, ERA, gut feel, basically how good of a pitcher they are.  The curve speed values I use work out pretty well.  The only real difficult thing here is knowing that slower curve pitches allow the ball to bend more, so yo ucould effectively enhance a guy's LR/CR value simply by making his speed slower.  I often ignore this point and just let the numbers fall and it works out pretty well.

Off-speed/knuckle/drop (heretofore known as the slow pitch) pitches are harder to quantify, and here's my question...do you find it more difficult to hit a guy with a slow pitch that is:

A.) significantly slower than his non-fastball, and thus messing up your timing
B.) similar in speed to his non-fastball, making it more difficult to read that it's a drop-pitch and therefore swinging away

I also know that Str8 pitch players might have different opinions on this than our anything goes/1SP per game players because we don't get the luxury of relying on fastball/slow pitches as often if we want to get our starter far enough into the game, so please mention your style of play when discussing this.

Aside from helping me decide on whether or not to change my speed rating system, I think this is an interesting discussion nonetheless.

Go!

[BeefMaster]

Personally, I think the change in speed is the big deal.  However, I think it also depends on the guy's drop rate - if a guy's good at putting them on the ground, then getting them to chase pitches at the same speed as a curveball is a pretty good weapon, too.

[Turd]

By far this is the most painstaking part of the process...

[RBI Empire]

I always felt the change of speed was the big difference for me. I'm more of an anything goes 1SP kind of guy. Mostly throw the regular speed pitch with curve. If I felt like I needed to get a strike out I would throw the drop or the fastball. So I guess I would find choice A more difficult. Keep in mind though that I play more RBI 2 & 3 than I do the original. It still relates some though, I think because this is a universal RBI feature. Take it for what it's worth.

[VEGAS]

I love an sp with a big curve (when I'm pitching), and hate those guys when I'm batting. And a good drop rate is just as frustrating for hitters.

[kahouty]

Hey Turd, long time!

Personally I think similar speed is more effective, being that it's more difficult to pick up as a 'sinker'. The super slow versions that sink give themselves away far too quickly and easily imo.

Nice job on the A's this year, lookin good! And as usual I look forward to your rom, always excellent.

[RBI Empire]

You know Turd, I was thinking about this today and I wonder if you could do it more player specific without putting in a ton of extra work. I think when it comes down to it they're both pretty hard to hit.

A pitcher like Mariano Rivera who threw a nasty cutter or Kimbrel with that wicked slider should have a faster slow pitch than most of your starters who are traditionally more control pitchers. There would be exceptions of course with guys like Strasburg and Verlander who throw hard deep into games.

I don't know all the inner workings of programming a ROM though. Do you have control over each pitcher's slow pitch speed or is more of a global setting covering all pitchers?

[Turd]

You definitely have control of each individual's speed for all three pitches.